Monday, May 9, 2016

Counter Sentiment Thoughts

I think it's interesting how so many articles I see continually mention how the broad based sentiment indicators are always wrong, that if everyone is bearish, the market must rise. It happens to work a lot.

But just over the past 24 hours, I have seen three articles, all saying there's a rally due to happen now that markets have pulled back. Taking the counter-sentiment standpoint, that makes me uneasy. Just as they like to say when everyone is bearish, be bullish, these writers themselves are now collectively bullish, which is problematic to me. They are all counting on the market bouncing off the 50 day moving average and having that continue on to resume the march back to the highs.

And now that we're seeing the market action this Monday, I'm not seeing that bounce. And when markets don't behave like they're supposed to, that usually doesn't bode well for the short term.

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