Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Markets Churning During Earnings Season; Apple Misses

Since the peak of the market's fear on January 20, exhibited by the near-30 level hit by the VXX, which I consider to be max fear or max pain, the market has climbed 5% off intraday lows. For the week, it is currently up 1.27%. The collapse did not get worse despite China's market tanking. Long term trend indicators and momentum are negative, so the only thing going for this market is the oversold condition which can give it some short term strength. Markets operate on a time/price basis: if it can't sell off within a certain amount of time, the next likely move tends to be higher. Markets certainly tend to do that during earnings season.

Apple's (AAPL) earnings disappointed as expected, but the bigger problem is that it missed even lowered expectations, and now, the point at which the market has become saturated may have finally arrived. As of next quarter, iPhone sales are expected to decline for the first time in over a decade. It looks like the market will have to wait for the iPhone 7 before this buzz-driven stock will have any reason to move higher.

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