Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Bearish Sentiment And Market Tops

Here's a great article that illustrates how bearish sentiment actually has a historical precedent for calling a market top:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4010056-dumb-money-investor-sentiment

Friday, September 23, 2016

But What About The Sentiment Readings?

I roll my eyes every time I hear someone saying that this bull market will continue because everyone's so pessimistic.

"But bull markets have never died on pessimism before, so that means we'll still keep going up!" is probably going to be the signature stupid comment that'll characterize this segment of stock market history.

Read Fooled By Randomness. It's that kind of idiotic thinking, that something has never happened before as the justification for it never happening ever, is the reason markets get hit by a truck.

Bull markets don't die on pessimism. Oh yeah? Watch this be the first.

Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Time To Pull In The Horns?

If history is any guide, there's some rough waters ahead. Precisely because it's been so calm.


The incredibly low volume we've experienced in inverse ETFs is the lowest in 5 years, and whenever it has gotten to these levels, the market has tended to exhibit short term peaks.

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Thursday, May 12, 2016

AAPL Failed Right Out The Gate

...and triggered sell-stops galore below $92:


There is a lot of technical damage on the longer term charts too as it breaks below support:


History is usually not kind to those buying the falling knife. It needs to make a better and more firm bottom before the odds tilt in one's favor for an entry.

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

AAPL - Is Apple Ready To Bounce?

Since the collapse in the price after earnings, shares seem to have a found a temporary floor at $93, with each attempt to bring it lower resulting in a fight back above that line. Here's the bigger picture:


And zoomed in on the past few weeks' price action, we can see that the floor may have been reached in the short term, and is perhaps aiming to make a move back higher:


Now you just have to be careful of a failed breakout.

There It Is

There's that bounce, confirmed by the neckline breakout: